* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 33 32 31 29 28 26 28 29 30 30 30 32 33 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 33 32 31 29 28 26 28 29 30 30 30 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 32 30 26 23 20 18 17 18 17 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 16 20 29 35 31 29 25 12 24 32 36 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 2 3 0 0 8 7 3 2 1 5 1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 323 304 296 288 284 298 287 287 280 305 352 359 356 351 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 130 132 133 136 134 130 132 135 135 138 140 136 134 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 123 126 129 131 129 124 125 127 127 129 133 128 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 54 51 52 52 63 62 58 56 55 55 49 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -11 -4 -4 -24 -24 -17 -8 5 20 5 -2 -11 -41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -26 -42 -42 -36 -10 36 96 42 42 26 4 -4 -14 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 -1 -5 -3 0 6 6 3 6 6 4 6 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1844 1827 1813 1811 1812 1715 1641 1600 1557 1530 1500 1453 1328 1635 1757 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.3 35.9 36.6 37.4 39.1 40.8 42.6 44.4 46.2 48.1 50.0 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 12 15 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 11 14 28 20 26 29 28 15 17 24 36 26 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -10. -15. -15. -16. -17. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 34.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 5.5% 4.6% 1.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 1.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 34 33 32 31 29 28 26 28 29 30 30 30 32 33 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 32 31 30 28 27 25 27 28 29 29 29 31 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 28 27 25 24 22 24 25 26 26 26 28 29 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 19 20 21 21 21 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT