* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 37 39 39 37 36 34 35 35 37 38 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 37 39 39 37 36 34 35 35 37 38 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 32 32 30 27 24 21 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 19 17 11 19 32 31 36 36 30 16 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 -2 -1 5 5 1 4 8 1 0 -1 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 340 343 340 330 294 279 283 283 290 278 256 259 263 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 129 129 130 134 137 132 130 134 134 136 137 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 128 125 123 123 124 129 133 127 125 127 124 125 126 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 60 58 55 52 53 53 59 61 59 50 51 51 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -21 -12 -7 -7 -13 -16 -33 -30 -22 -5 -1 4 10 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 -5 5 12 12 8 -7 1 56 73 60 52 16 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 2 7 5 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1563 1637 1711 1785 1844 1824 1833 1734 1664 1601 1581 1587 1617 1804 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.3 19.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.5 33.2 33.9 34.6 35.9 37.5 39.4 41.4 43.6 45.4 47.1 48.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 7 9 11 11 11 10 9 8 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 8 8 9 15 29 17 28 28 17 14 23 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -17. -19. -19. -18. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 31.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.35 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.14 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.83 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.44 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.4% 7.1% 4.6% 1.5% 6.1% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 5.4% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.3% 3.9% 1.8% 0.5% 2.3% 2.8% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 35 37 39 39 37 36 34 35 35 37 38 40 42 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 36 38 38 36 35 33 34 34 36 37 39 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 34 34 32 31 29 30 30 32 33 35 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 26 26 24 23 21 22 22 24 25 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT