* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 70 71 73 75 76 79 77 71 60 50 45 40 37 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 70 71 73 75 76 79 77 71 60 50 45 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 70 71 72 73 74 73 68 62 60 55 49 47 47 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 22 25 23 20 27 28 34 30 20 16 10 11 16 13 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 4 6 2 3 3 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 292 284 293 291 277 264 236 234 212 229 186 212 217 239 242 264 252 SST (C) 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 28.8 27.6 26.2 26.6 26.9 22.8 19.3 18.3 20.7 24.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 159 162 162 160 161 147 130 114 119 122 90 77 75 81 103 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 138 139 138 136 135 123 109 96 99 101 78 70 69 72 88 92 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -53.5 -54.3 -55.4 -56.1 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 3 5 3 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 57 58 59 61 59 57 51 53 54 53 40 34 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 27 27 29 32 35 38 41 40 37 31 26 23 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -9 7 25 45 55 74 86 80 87 103 66 53 67 -11 -23 200 MB DIV 28 28 46 61 76 31 66 61 89 27 87 54 28 7 -16 -14 -17 700-850 TADV 5 1 -2 8 15 25 25 30 11 11 0 2 -1 0 -4 -12 -10 LAND (KM) 785 829 862 832 787 658 550 448 365 338 346 282 146 206 281 553 780 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.9 31.2 32.7 34.1 35.5 37.1 38.7 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.6 71.3 71.7 72.2 72.5 72.4 72.3 72.2 72.0 71.5 70.6 69.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 37 39 39 36 38 30 16 0 5 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 17. 15. 11. 1. -6. -10. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 12. 6. -5. -15. -20. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.8 69.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.22 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 468.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.39 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 15.4% 10.5% 8.3% 5.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 8.8% 4.7% 4.8% 2.2% 3.1% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.4% 5.1% 4.4% 2.5% 3.7% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 69 70 70 71 73 75 76 79 77 71 60 50 45 40 37 18HR AGO 65 64 66 67 67 68 70 72 73 76 74 68 57 47 42 37 34 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 62 63 65 67 68 71 69 63 52 42 37 32 29 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 56 58 60 61 64 62 56 45 35 30 25 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT