* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 44 47 45 42 38 37 38 36 38 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 44 47 45 42 38 37 38 36 38 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 36 33 30 26 22 19 17 16 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 11 16 18 15 14 13 21 30 30 28 38 31 25 12 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 5 -1 -4 0 1 9 6 6 6 11 4 -1 -5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 359 325 336 344 345 333 317 275 270 270 276 265 260 240 227 355 348 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 141 138 132 130 130 133 137 141 142 139 133 137 136 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 137 133 126 125 125 129 135 137 138 135 125 127 125 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 62 62 62 60 59 55 57 60 62 65 67 63 57 52 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 11 10 8 7 7 5 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -43 -31 -30 -27 -19 -22 -21 -26 -28 -31 -26 -3 -12 12 3 -6 200 MB DIV 32 26 68 45 1 10 17 3 -3 0 26 51 84 36 55 -27 -13 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 -3 -3 -2 1 7 4 8 12 8 9 LAND (KM) 1181 1275 1370 1440 1511 1635 1755 1795 1811 1717 1602 1523 1459 1795 1819 1726 1680 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.7 29.7 30.4 31.1 32.3 33.5 35.1 36.9 39.0 41.1 43.1 45.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 10 11 10 10 12 11 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 26 27 22 18 12 9 8 12 23 21 37 38 19 23 26 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -9. -12. -15. -14. -18. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 15. 12. 8. 7. 8. 6. 8. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 27.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.58 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.9% 10.9% 7.6% 4.6% 8.7% 10.2% 11.9% Logistic: 6.4% 20.2% 13.9% 4.6% 1.9% 6.6% 5.8% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% Consensus: 4.5% 13.7% 8.8% 4.1% 2.2% 5.2% 5.6% 5.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 39 44 47 45 42 38 37 38 36 38 41 42 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 37 42 45 43 40 36 35 36 34 36 39 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 38 41 39 36 32 31 32 30 32 35 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 30 33 31 28 24 23 24 22 24 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT