* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 33 37 44 50 54 55 54 54 52 52 51 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 33 37 44 50 54 55 54 54 52 52 51 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 32 33 35 37 37 37 36 35 32 29 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 8 6 6 9 8 13 14 15 15 11 7 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 0 4 5 5 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 93 83 65 57 58 62 77 88 79 74 54 63 69 82 105 124 50 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.3 27.3 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 145 144 144 143 142 143 144 145 143 135 135 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 58 58 57 54 55 54 49 46 45 41 43 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 16 16 15 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -1 -9 -17 -19 -22 -14 -13 0 0 -1 16 15 17 24 21 22 200 MB DIV 35 21 10 8 7 -9 -31 -8 22 12 15 10 0 -1 1 -29 -22 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 6 6 6 LAND (KM) 1507 1540 1575 1607 1639 1688 1713 1722 1730 1730 1716 1682 1646 1635 1757 1787 1917 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.5 125.1 125.4 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6 125.6 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 2 4 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 6 6 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 24. 25. 24. 24. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 122.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.86 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 16.9% 16.3% 12.9% 0.0% 14.1% 13.5% 13.4% Logistic: 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.5% 5.6% 4.4% 0.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##