* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 67 68 70 71 70 70 71 72 71 70 70 70 66 60 59 V (KT) LAND 65 65 67 68 70 71 70 70 71 72 71 70 70 70 66 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 67 68 69 71 71 72 70 66 61 58 58 57 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 15 15 15 15 25 24 33 36 38 32 25 22 17 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 5 6 1 2 3 1 0 -2 -1 2 -4 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 360 358 354 327 312 287 286 264 248 223 229 227 229 194 223 226 269 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.8 27.1 22.1 22.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 148 154 158 156 152 155 137 129 123 117 120 123 88 91 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 129 135 139 135 129 131 116 109 102 97 97 100 77 80 76 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -51.3 -51.5 -52.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 5 3 4 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 51 51 56 56 58 57 61 59 60 60 50 42 37 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 24 24 26 27 28 30 34 36 39 41 43 43 41 44 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 6 4 -12 -12 -18 16 25 56 71 68 49 97 92 74 130 200 MB DIV -8 -11 9 -4 13 30 42 91 54 61 60 60 17 44 14 7 12 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -5 -5 -3 3 1 11 22 12 10 3 4 5 0 -3 -35 LAND (KM) 701 694 691 707 733 838 890 770 683 620 599 617 525 409 293 271 258 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.8 26.2 27.3 28.4 29.7 31.1 32.7 34.2 35.6 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.7 67.2 67.9 68.7 70.1 70.8 70.9 70.6 70.0 69.4 68.9 68.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 8 8 7 6 6 8 8 7 8 5 5 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 43 50 43 37 40 39 25 15 7 12 6 36 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 1. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.0 66.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.36 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.90 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 586.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.26 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 17.2% 11.8% 9.7% 6.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.2% 17.2% 16.0% 10.2% 5.5% 6.6% 3.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 12.1% 9.7% 6.6% 4.1% 5.5% 1.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/14/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 67 68 70 71 70 70 71 72 71 70 70 70 66 60 59 18HR AGO 65 64 66 67 69 70 69 69 70 71 70 69 69 69 65 59 58 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 64 65 64 64 65 66 65 64 64 64 60 54 53 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 58 57 57 58 59 58 57 57 57 53 47 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT