* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 66 66 60 59 58 57 55 53 54 56 58 57 58 56 V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 66 66 60 59 58 57 55 53 54 56 58 57 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 68 67 65 64 63 61 58 56 56 56 54 54 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 23 20 18 22 20 24 29 31 41 36 41 23 24 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 2 3 1 3 -1 2 3 1 0 -3 -3 -7 -1 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 3 1 357 353 334 318 308 291 271 249 233 237 227 216 230 230 257 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.3 26.8 26.8 25.2 22.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 148 152 158 151 150 137 130 125 116 120 120 104 87 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 126 128 133 137 129 128 116 109 104 96 97 97 86 75 81 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 -0.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 4 3 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 52 53 53 59 58 59 60 58 59 53 55 45 42 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 22 19 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 33 33 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 -9 -7 -16 -30 -12 -11 12 36 53 70 60 57 82 63 70 200 MB DIV -5 0 0 4 8 22 48 78 40 47 57 47 42 31 10 10 2 700-850 TADV 4 1 -4 -6 -5 -11 -6 8 13 15 9 10 8 4 0 -9 -18 LAND (KM) 742 722 704 708 718 782 917 826 712 631 588 584 561 508 354 299 351 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.7 28.0 29.5 30.9 32.4 33.8 35.2 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.1 66.5 67.1 67.6 69.1 70.0 70.3 70.4 70.1 69.7 69.3 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 36 42 49 39 37 36 26 17 9 4 17 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -1. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -1. 3. 6. 5. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -16. -14. -12. -13. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 25.2 65.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.18 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.81 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 596.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 15.9% 11.0% 9.0% 5.8% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 12.4% 10.9% 5.2% 2.6% 5.1% 3.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 10.0% 7.8% 4.8% 2.8% 4.7% 1.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/14/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 68 66 66 60 59 58 57 55 53 54 56 58 57 58 56 18HR AGO 70 69 68 66 66 60 59 58 57 55 53 54 56 58 57 58 56 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 64 58 57 56 55 53 51 52 54 56 55 56 54 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 54 53 52 51 49 47 48 50 52 51 52 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT