* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 36 42 49 52 55 59 62 63 63 65 67 67 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 36 42 49 52 55 59 62 63 63 65 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 34 37 39 42 45 47 46 45 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 15 12 9 7 6 9 7 5 7 6 5 7 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 -6 -5 -4 -7 -5 0 2 5 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 78 81 88 98 102 82 55 50 16 34 21 53 45 34 78 277 331 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.6 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 149 146 145 144 142 140 138 139 143 148 150 139 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 67 64 62 59 57 54 53 53 52 49 50 48 50 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 64 56 42 26 10 -10 -12 -17 -19 -20 -12 -9 7 -6 -20 -4 -4 200 MB DIV 45 34 20 19 -7 -21 -5 -7 -9 9 36 40 27 -2 -20 -9 -13 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 1376 1420 1467 1508 1552 1623 1679 1728 1768 1801 1820 1830 1836 1399 1436 1635 1688 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.0 121.7 122.4 123.1 124.2 124.9 125.4 125.8 126.2 126.5 126.7 127.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 10 11 9 13 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 17 17 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 13 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 12. 19. 22. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. 35. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 120.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.18 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.08 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.79 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.7% 10.1% 6.9% 0.0% 10.2% 10.8% 12.5% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.3% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% 3.4% 3.8% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##