* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 56 56 53 49 52 54 57 59 61 62 57 54 51 46 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 56 56 53 49 52 54 57 59 61 62 57 54 51 46 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 60 57 54 52 51 51 52 54 55 55 54 51 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 30 31 27 24 21 23 24 27 26 26 31 31 31 20 22 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 3 5 5 2 3 -4 -3 0 3 5 -3 -3 -2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 345 360 4 4 352 339 317 307 300 271 254 242 245 235 219 229 243 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.1 27.6 27.9 26.4 26.0 27.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 148 148 151 157 153 150 152 137 130 134 116 112 127 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 125 126 127 132 137 132 126 128 115 109 111 97 94 104 90 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -51.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 50 52 50 50 50 53 55 58 58 56 60 62 67 61 58 55 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 23 25 25 22 25 25 27 30 33 36 36 38 38 35 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -8 -7 -11 -18 -15 -27 -16 -3 15 45 53 79 72 88 74 52 200 MB DIV -19 20 6 0 0 -20 14 12 68 56 56 103 35 31 45 18 -25 700-850 TADV 11 12 6 2 -3 -3 -3 0 6 18 21 20 13 8 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 794 768 735 725 701 700 762 850 892 803 750 714 716 496 417 468 465 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.6 26.5 27.4 28.5 29.7 30.9 32.2 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.6 65.5 65.8 66.2 67.5 68.9 70.1 70.6 70.4 69.9 69.2 68.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 5 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 39 37 36 47 41 37 38 36 24 15 26 2 0 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -3. -3. -3. 1. 5. 8. 7. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -9. -9. -12. -16. -13. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. -8. -11. -14. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.7 65.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 580.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 1.5% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/13/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 61 56 56 53 49 52 54 57 59 61 62 57 54 51 46 18HR AGO 65 64 62 57 57 54 50 53 55 58 60 62 63 58 55 52 47 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 56 53 49 52 54 57 59 61 62 57 54 51 46 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 52 48 51 53 56 58 60 61 56 53 50 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT