* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 29 34 38 43 48 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 29 34 38 43 48 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 29 30 32 34 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 16 14 11 15 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 -2 -5 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 90 84 94 106 91 106 73 65 38 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 150 150 149 147 146 145 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 65 66 61 58 57 55 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 75 60 45 32 8 -14 -15 -22 -23 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 46 48 42 40 5 11 22 32 -11 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1183 1256 1320 1361 1403 1471 1514 1552 1583 1607 1631 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.3 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.9 119.6 120.2 120.9 122.0 122.8 123.4 123.8 124.1 124.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 6 6 4 4 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 19 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 118.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.75 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.9% 10.6% 7.3% 0.0% 11.0% 10.7% 13.1% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 3.7% 3.6% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##