* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 64 59 61 59 61 63 64 68 70 68 67 67 61 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 64 59 61 59 61 63 64 68 70 68 67 67 61 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 66 65 63 60 58 58 58 59 62 62 61 61 61 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 24 25 25 25 21 22 25 25 25 27 31 33 36 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 6 6 4 0 3 -7 -3 0 3 5 -4 -9 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 357 358 347 360 358 355 344 321 304 301 270 254 242 220 220 236 224 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.0 28.4 28.5 27.5 26.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 147 145 142 147 155 159 161 157 152 136 141 144 133 125 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 126 123 119 125 135 137 139 134 128 115 117 122 118 111 91 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -50.6 -50.7 -51.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.3 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 10 9 7 6 7 7 4 3 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 51 49 48 51 55 56 56 56 61 63 60 52 74 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 23 25 24 26 25 26 27 28 33 36 37 40 44 43 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -38 -35 -23 -19 -21 -26 -21 -18 1 10 57 69 110 108 93 104 200 MB DIV -40 -47 -33 -3 -15 -16 -15 1 27 45 62 55 72 43 40 79 61 700-850 TADV 5 7 10 12 4 4 -1 0 0 3 14 14 13 9 9 10 6 LAND (KM) 844 837 836 819 793 770 754 762 857 905 807 788 777 539 440 657 582 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.4 27.4 28.7 30.0 31.2 32.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.7 66.2 65.6 65.4 65.2 65.8 66.9 68.3 69.4 70.1 70.0 69.1 68.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 3 2 4 6 6 7 7 6 8 6 9 17 21 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 36 35 35 36 47 48 40 40 36 18 29 30 19 13 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 14. 16. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -4. -6. -4. -2. -1. 3. 5. 3. 2. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.7 66.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 550.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 9.1% 7.9% 4.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 5.1% 5.5% 3.1% 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.1% 5.0% 3.7% 2.0% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/13/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 64 64 59 61 59 61 63 64 68 70 68 67 67 61 18HR AGO 65 64 64 63 63 58 60 58 60 62 63 67 69 67 66 66 60 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 60 55 57 55 57 59 60 64 66 64 63 63 57 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 50 52 50 52 54 55 59 61 59 58 58 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT