* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 32 37 42 45 48 49 50 53 54 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 32 37 42 45 48 49 50 53 54 57 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 27 29 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 17 14 14 11 11 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 1 0 -4 -4 -5 -1 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 101 96 99 99 99 136 114 122 72 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 156 155 155 149 149 148 147 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 70 70 67 65 57 60 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 75 82 77 46 27 9 2 19 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 51 30 47 62 40 40 10 27 23 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 895 974 1060 1143 1229 1336 1398 1445 1498 1566 1636 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.5 116.5 117.5 118.4 120.0 121.2 122.2 123.2 124.3 125.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 29 26 25 22 15 14 14 13 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 28. 29. 32. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 114.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.94 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.12 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.9% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.3% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 4.7% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##