* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 82 80 78 74 68 69 72 74 78 80 79 83 84 84 78 V (KT) LAND 85 83 82 80 78 74 68 69 72 74 78 80 79 83 84 84 78 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 81 79 78 78 76 74 74 74 76 79 80 81 81 76 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 22 22 18 22 22 23 14 9 11 19 16 23 25 26 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 2 5 6 2 5 4 3 3 4 10 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 31 8 349 346 344 340 1 6 11 311 293 273 254 241 214 231 229 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.6 28.9 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 160 158 155 156 161 163 164 164 159 162 152 126 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 138 136 137 135 134 132 134 141 145 146 146 139 140 135 109 104 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.0 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 59 60 59 62 58 56 52 54 56 59 61 64 64 64 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 22 22 22 24 24 26 28 29 31 32 31 35 38 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -50 -61 -55 -43 -36 -22 -10 4 -8 -6 -10 11 17 46 39 47 200 MB DIV -13 -15 -22 -8 27 -48 -42 13 16 2 50 56 95 66 65 41 62 700-850 TADV 8 10 14 12 3 4 4 0 -2 -1 -1 1 10 12 15 18 8 LAND (KM) 714 766 819 833 850 805 738 650 575 564 615 620 443 363 412 326 253 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.4 25.6 24.9 24.6 24.8 25.4 26.3 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.3 67.8 66.9 66.6 67.0 68.1 69.9 71.8 73.7 75.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 4 5 5 3 4 6 8 9 10 8 9 14 13 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 44 44 45 49 43 45 54 45 39 62 64 83 43 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 9. 11. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -16. -13. -11. -7. -5. -6. -2. -1. -1. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 26.1 69.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.93 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.37 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 12.5% 9.1% 7.8% 4.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 8.8% 7.8% 5.6% 4.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 7.3% 5.7% 4.5% 3.1% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/11/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 6( 22) 5( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 3( 8) 1( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 82 80 78 74 68 69 72 74 78 80 79 83 84 84 78 18HR AGO 85 84 83 81 79 75 69 70 73 75 79 81 80 84 85 85 79 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 77 73 67 68 71 73 77 79 78 82 83 83 77 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 69 63 64 67 69 73 75 74 78 79 79 73 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 62 56 57 60 62 66 68 67 71 72 72 66 IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 61 55 56 59 61 65 67 66 70 71 71 65 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT