* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 89 86 83 78 74 73 75 76 81 87 91 91 88 89 85 V (KT) LAND 100 93 89 86 83 78 74 73 75 76 81 87 91 91 88 89 85 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 89 86 83 80 79 78 77 78 78 79 84 89 90 89 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 24 17 15 17 19 20 16 19 12 14 13 12 21 33 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 4 5 5 4 5 7 9 4 -1 -4 5 4 8 1 SHEAR DIR 360 13 20 19 357 348 336 351 358 356 328 313 300 270 235 245 239 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 162 161 160 161 161 161 161 162 159 160 159 160 147 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 145 141 137 134 136 136 137 139 142 139 143 142 140 128 116 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -49.6 -49.8 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 60 61 62 63 64 65 61 63 63 64 63 61 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 22 21 22 23 25 28 29 30 32 35 36 36 41 44 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -67 -71 -52 -47 -55 -38 -26 -11 -2 5 1 -3 0 35 49 73 200 MB DIV -41 -36 -10 -2 -10 -9 -23 -16 -22 5 7 43 87 104 84 127 63 700-850 TADV 16 12 7 9 8 6 3 2 -1 0 -2 -11 4 14 10 19 9 LAND (KM) 465 526 607 671 735 773 754 697 631 545 531 567 553 491 367 464 383 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.2 25.1 25.7 26.3 26.6 26.3 25.7 25.1 24.5 24.5 24.9 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.3 69.0 69.2 69.4 68.9 68.2 67.9 68.0 68.8 69.9 71.3 72.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 10 11 9 11 7 HEAT CONTENT 53 56 49 47 45 47 51 52 54 54 50 44 54 61 67 34 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -12. -13. -15. -14. -12. -9. -7. -3. -1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -14. -17. -22. -26. -27. -25. -24. -19. -13. -9. -9. -12. -11. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.3 67.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.15 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.34 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.64 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 638.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 5.5% 5.0% 4.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/11/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 11( 31) 9( 37) 6( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 5( 10) 8( 17) 1( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 93 89 86 83 78 74 73 75 76 81 87 91 91 88 89 85 18HR AGO 100 99 95 92 89 84 80 79 81 82 87 93 97 97 94 95 91 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 90 85 81 80 82 83 88 94 98 98 95 96 92 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 82 78 77 79 80 85 91 95 95 92 93 89 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 76 72 71 73 74 79 85 89 89 86 87 83 IN 6HR 100 93 84 78 75 71 67 66 68 69 74 80 84 84 81 82 78 IN 12HR 100 93 89 80 74 70 66 65 67 68 73 79 83 83 80 81 77