* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 98 94 86 66 45 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 89 73 64 52 35 29 28 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 101 83 73 53 35 29 27 27 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 33 35 39 45 30 16 16 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 6 1 -8 1 0 3 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 228 228 215 209 208 195 213 254 268 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.6 30.4 29.4 29.3 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.6 28.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 173 160 158 143 133 129 130 137 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 167 162 143 140 123 111 105 105 110 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.8 -50.0 -50.2 -49.3 -48.8 -49.0 -49.4 -50.0 -51.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 61 57 51 47 42 41 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 46 46 45 42 32 22 18 13 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 133 133 125 146 147 142 131 75 39 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 62 81 113 113 18 17 14 23 -5 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 46 55 73 82 86 40 2 6 9 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 38 -4 -5 1 -60 -283 -405 -529 -662 -801 -860 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.8 28.0 29.3 30.5 32.8 34.3 35.5 36.7 37.9 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.1 82.5 83.1 83.7 85.5 87.1 88.2 88.1 87.0 85.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 12 8 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 63 62 40 5 3 2 2 2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -7. -16. -24. -31. -37. -40. -42. -46. -48. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -17. -22. -32. -33. -28. -22. -18. -14. -13. -11. -9. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -13. -27. -37. -47. -51. -59. -60. -59. -57. -55. -52. -51. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -19. -39. -60. -71. -80. -87. -95. -95. -94. -92. -91. -91. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.6 81.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/10/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 89 73 64 52 35 29 28 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 88 79 67 50 44 43 42 43 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 12HR AGO 105 102 101 92 80 63 57 56 55 56 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 83 66 60 59 58 59 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 69 63 62 61 62 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 IN 6HR 105 89 80 74 71 63 57 56 55 56 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT