* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 115 109 103 81 57 39 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 117 115 94 99 56 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 117 117 110 100 57 36 29 28 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 27 31 30 42 40 29 10 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 0 8 6 3 0 -6 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 231 233 233 222 208 201 187 212 244 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.3 29.6 29.0 28.2 27.6 27.5 27.8 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 172 173 163 153 140 131 128 132 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 164 160 146 133 118 108 104 106 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -48.7 -48.3 -48.6 -49.6 -50.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 62 60 49 45 46 47 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 49 49 47 47 37 27 19 17 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 134 149 126 150 168 178 107 60 41 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 97 49 55 90 101 11 18 14 -6 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 34 39 82 76 43 5 0 13 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 83 52 25 -3 26 -155 -322 -440 -575 -684 -796 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.6 26.6 27.9 29.1 31.4 33.3 34.7 35.9 36.9 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.9 82.3 82.8 83.3 84.8 86.4 87.9 88.5 88.1 87.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 10 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 55 79 77 54 8 3 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 4. -0. -9. -20. -30. -40. -46. -49. -52. -56. -58. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -28. -32. -29. -23. -16. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -9. -24. -37. -44. -53. -59. -60. -59. -57. -55. -52. -51. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -0. -6. -12. -34. -58. -76. -85. -96.-103.-103.-101. -98. -97. -96. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.5 81.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.43 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.53 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 13.4% 9.6% 7.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 2.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.8% 0.1% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 5.2% 3.9% 3.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/10/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 21( 62) 0( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 117 115 94 99 56 36 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 112 91 96 53 33 27 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 90 95 52 32 26 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 110 67 47 41 39 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 53 33 27 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 117 108 102 99 77 57 51 49 48 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 IN 12HR 115 117 115 106 100 96 76 70 68 67 40 40 40 40 40 40 40