* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 107 103 98 87 80 76 78 80 86 91 91 96 98 97 94 V (KT) LAND 115 111 107 103 98 87 80 76 78 80 86 91 91 96 98 97 94 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 106 102 100 95 90 85 83 82 83 86 88 93 98 97 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 14 22 26 25 23 23 20 17 18 17 14 16 8 15 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 4 -1 0 4 3 2 4 2 4 0 -2 -2 2 4 12 SHEAR DIR 315 335 358 12 33 23 7 13 335 343 335 330 315 274 255 263 260 SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 158 161 161 162 162 161 160 158 158 161 161 163 163 161 158 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 150 151 149 147 141 136 135 133 134 137 138 146 148 139 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -50.3 -49.3 -49.7 -49.2 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 8 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 55 57 61 62 63 62 60 57 59 59 62 60 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 21 21 20 22 24 27 29 32 34 34 38 41 43 44 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -37 -56 -54 -63 -69 -58 -41 -30 -16 -15 4 -6 2 3 45 48 200 MB DIV 0 3 -6 -35 -47 -29 -40 -8 -21 -10 33 32 38 80 84 120 89 700-850 TADV 14 16 13 15 7 11 13 7 4 2 2 0 -1 5 20 22 26 LAND (KM) 294 321 400 461 490 598 685 741 743 700 648 582 536 649 573 647 629 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.9 23.7 25.0 25.8 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.1 66.1 67.0 67.9 68.9 68.9 68.3 67.8 67.5 67.8 68.6 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 10 5 3 3 2 2 3 4 9 12 7 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 66 53 55 50 49 51 52 49 53 53 52 45 66 38 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -2. -9. -18. -25. -32. -36. -38. -41. -43. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -5. -9. -13. -19. -19. -16. -12. -8. -3. -0. 3. 7. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. 1. 2. 6. 8. 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -28. -35. -39. -37. -35. -29. -24. -24. -19. -17. -18. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 20.4 64.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.32 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 789.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 5.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 17 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/10/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 27( 50) 21( 60) 10( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 54 9( 58) 14( 64) 34( 76) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 111 107 103 98 87 80 76 78 80 86 91 91 96 98 97 94 18HR AGO 115 114 110 106 101 90 83 79 81 83 89 94 94 99 101 100 97 12HR AGO 115 112 111 107 102 91 84 80 82 84 90 95 95 100 102 101 98 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 100 89 82 78 80 82 88 93 93 98 100 99 96 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 85 78 74 76 78 84 89 89 94 96 95 92 IN 6HR 115 111 102 96 93 86 79 75 77 79 85 90 90 95 97 96 93 IN 12HR 115 111 107 98 92 88 81 77 79 81 87 92 92 97 99 98 95