* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 108 112 112 110 98 76 60 51 47 42 36 36 35 36 35 V (KT) LAND 110 107 108 112 112 93 74 42 32 28 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 104 106 109 106 73 41 31 28 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 10 17 17 23 25 35 44 30 18 14 23 20 20 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 1 0 8 5 -5 0 3 6 6 0 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 240 247 250 237 228 209 214 205 221 256 260 251 268 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.1 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.8 29.4 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 169 171 171 172 160 148 140 133 132 132 135 139 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 151 150 155 160 170 142 128 117 108 105 104 109 115 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -49.5 -48.9 -48.5 -49.0 -49.5 -50.8 -52.4 -53.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 9 7 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 61 61 61 57 51 46 45 48 47 42 45 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 41 42 47 48 48 42 31 22 17 14 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 128 140 144 145 134 161 147 125 87 47 13 -8 -33 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 102 100 101 77 108 118 13 22 9 19 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 15 22 23 34 74 72 31 0 10 11 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 19 61 91 70 58 -7 -42 -307 -461 -541 -624 -678 -731 -726 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.8 25.6 27.8 30.4 33.0 34.8 35.6 36.3 36.8 37.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.8 81.3 81.7 82.1 82.7 83.9 85.4 87.0 88.4 89.0 88.9 88.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 9 10 13 14 13 9 6 3 3 6 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 62 56 48 58 78 7 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -11. -18. -26. -32. -37. -42. -46. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -18. -14. -9. -6. -4. -1. 0. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 3. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 5. 7. 2. -13. -26. -34. -40. -44. -49. -47. -46. -44. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. 2. 2. -0. -12. -34. -50. -59. -63. -68. -74. -74. -75. -74. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.1 80.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.20 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.39 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 471.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.60 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 7.7% 6.1% 4.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 3.0% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/09/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 30( 64) 0( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 87 43( 93) 3( 93) 0( 93) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 107 108 112 112 93 74 42 32 28 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 110 109 110 114 114 95 76 44 34 30 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 12HR AGO 110 107 106 110 110 91 72 40 30 26 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 81 62 30 20 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 72 53 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 107 98 92 89 70 51 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 107 108 99 93 89 70 38 28 24 23 23 23 24 24 24 24