* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 141 141 142 138 134 128 117 91 69 53 44 40 37 36 32 25 V (KT) LAND 140 141 141 142 138 134 113 76 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 141 141 140 139 136 104 78 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 9 15 19 25 35 42 40 30 26 30 31 36 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 3 3 6 4 2 0 -2 0 4 3 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 302 316 290 247 243 238 227 208 219 205 212 218 244 243 248 238 230 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.3 30.9 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 169 171 172 161 151 143 137 134 133 139 137 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 164 160 154 151 158 172 142 129 119 110 106 104 110 108 107 108 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -49.7 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.3 -48.5 -48.4 -48.3 -48.7 -50.0 -51.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 12 11 8 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 3 1 5 2 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 60 62 62 59 57 49 42 42 41 42 40 34 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 40 44 44 49 50 48 35 25 18 13 12 9 7 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 85 86 98 120 130 144 133 165 172 167 117 77 24 5 -18 -22 -85 200 MB DIV 27 40 64 68 83 98 87 112 61 29 2 22 -4 3 -4 6 -4 700-850 TADV 5 7 9 11 17 30 53 49 46 5 0 1 0 2 5 3 0 LAND (KM) 11 32 7 44 88 53 5 -36 -251 -396 -479 -509 -540 -564 -476 -472 -530 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.4 23.9 25.5 27.7 30.2 32.3 34.0 35.0 35.3 35.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.1 80.0 80.6 81.1 81.8 82.6 83.5 84.8 86.3 87.2 87.5 87.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 8 10 13 12 11 8 4 2 2 3 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 64 66 65 62 57 52 76 26 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 0. -5. -13. -26. -37. -49. -59. -66. -73. -79. -83. -87. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -14. -15. -13. -7. -4. -0. 5. 8. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 5. -11. -26. -37. -44. -46. -49. -49. -49. -51. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. -2. -6. -12. -23. -49. -71. -87. -96.-100.-103.-104.-108.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 22.3 78.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 699.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 8.5% 6.0% 3.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.7% 3.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 56( 80) 50( 90) 48( 95) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 99 99(100) 90(100) 27(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 141 141 142 138 134 113 76 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 140 139 139 140 136 132 111 74 41 30 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 140 137 136 137 133 129 108 71 38 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 126 122 101 64 31 20 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 117 96 59 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 140 141 132 126 123 119 98 61 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 140 141 141 132 126 122 101 64 31 20 16 15 15 15 15 15 15