* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 75 81 88 93 96 96 86 78 72 65 60 58 58 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 65 75 81 88 93 96 96 86 59 40 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 76 85 90 93 98 97 92 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 12 8 5 5 7 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 -5 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 215 232 239 204 252 353 22 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 161 161 162 161 154 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 139 139 141 143 139 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 7 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 70 69 71 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 12 12 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 12 16 9 1 -3 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 67 45 29 33 44 64 48 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 3 7 -1 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 208 232 249 247 246 217 150 53 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.6 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.6 20.0 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.0 94.7 94.6 94.6 94.8 95.3 96.0 96.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 1 2 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 56 52 50 48 46 39 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -11. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 11. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 16. 23. 28. 31. 31. 21. 13. 7. 0. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.8 95.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 21.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.64 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.87 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 6.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.79 4.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 6.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.8% 72.2% 57.5% 53.9% 20.2% 50.6% 37.9% 29.6% Logistic: 66.1% 89.8% 86.5% 75.1% 51.9% 68.6% 71.2% 65.2% Bayesian: 38.3% 26.4% 15.9% 16.6% 6.2% 3.0% 0.3% 3.4% Consensus: 52.0% 62.8% 53.3% 48.5% 26.1% 40.7% 36.5% 32.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 8( 10) 14( 22) 19( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 2( 3) 7( 10) 13( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 75 81 88 93 96 96 86 59 40 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 70 77 82 85 85 75 48 29 21 18 17 16 16 16 16 12HR AGO 65 62 61 68 73 76 76 66 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 63 63 53 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT