* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132017 09/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 41 44 48 54 55 52 51 52 54 56 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 41 44 48 54 55 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 40 43 47 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 19 14 17 11 6 6 6 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 0 -5 0 -3 -2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 269 269 248 228 250 231 46 99 30 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.8 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 164 164 164 163 162 162 159 146 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 142 143 143 141 140 143 141 131 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 5 9 6 11 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 76 77 76 73 73 72 73 71 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 7 10 4 9 -6 -8 -23 -3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 56 51 58 55 26 39 22 47 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 2 5 1 4 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 99 118 140 158 179 197 174 140 72 -34 -131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.2 20.9 20.5 19.9 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.6 96.3 96.0 95.8 95.5 95.3 95.4 95.6 96.1 96.9 97.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 49 53 56 59 57 51 46 35 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 11. 14. 18. 24. 26. 22. 21. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.3 96.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.27 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.63 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.89 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.85 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.2% 11.6% 8.0% 4.7% 9.1% 12.3% 20.4% Logistic: 14.5% 52.0% 39.1% 24.0% 9.3% 24.2% 32.2% 62.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 18.9% Consensus: 7.4% 24.3% 17.1% 10.8% 4.7% 11.2% 14.9% 34.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 41 44 48 54 55 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 37 40 44 50 51 42 29 25 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 31 34 38 44 45 36 23 19 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 28 34 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT