* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 160 160 159 158 155 150 142 138 136 132 132 131 136 133 120 95 72 V (KT) LAND 160 160 159 158 155 150 142 138 136 132 132 131 136 103 90 54 36 V (KT) LGEM 160 157 152 148 145 141 141 143 143 139 135 130 121 88 68 42 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 7 5 3 4 5 6 8 9 8 9 18 27 31 50 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 3 7 7 5 8 3 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 275 263 279 314 287 335 334 353 350 319 279 271 254 229 220 225 227 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.8 29.8 30.2 30.1 29.9 30.2 29.8 29.4 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 163 163 165 161 166 166 171 170 166 172 167 160 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 161 163 160 159 161 154 157 154 159 152 147 162 151 141 121 116 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -49.2 -49.0 -48.5 -47.9 -46.9 -47.0 -47.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 12 13 11 10 3 3 0 1 700-500 MB RH 58 54 57 56 55 56 54 53 58 62 62 63 54 58 47 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 34 35 34 37 37 41 46 47 50 53 59 59 53 35 21 850 MB ENV VOR 67 54 57 62 67 64 58 62 95 115 133 171 226 182 220 195 137 200 MB DIV 20 5 -1 1 -5 17 23 42 69 77 43 59 39 95 59 39 38 700-850 TADV -7 4 3 4 2 3 0 5 0 6 14 20 20 25 17 10 -2 LAND (KM) 574 425 277 133 49 92 89 115 72 30 40 100 102 88 117 -130 -273 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.9 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.8 63.1 64.5 65.8 68.6 71.3 73.9 76.2 78.1 79.7 80.8 82.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 7 13 14 13 14 10 HEAT CONTENT 57 55 72 74 62 74 54 67 52 61 65 56 49 45 38 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -24. -40. -53. -65. -73. -77. -80. -84. -88. -91. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 17. 20. 22. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 6. 11. 12. 17. 20. 26. 25. 15. -7. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -22. -24. -28. -28. -29. -24. -27. -40. -65. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 17.2 60.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 160.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 894.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 3.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 81 84( 97) 77( 99) 78(100) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 98 98(100) 98(100) 99(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 160 159 158 155 150 142 138 136 132 132 131 136 103 90 54 36 18HR AGO 160 159 158 157 154 149 141 137 135 131 131 130 135 102 89 53 35 12HR AGO 160 157 156 155 152 147 139 135 133 129 129 128 133 100 87 51 33 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 147 142 134 130 128 124 124 123 128 95 82 46 28 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 136 128 124 122 118 118 117 122 89 76 40 22 IN 6HR 160 160 151 145 142 138 130 126 124 120 120 119 124 91 78 42 24 IN 12HR 160 160 159 150 144 140 132 128 126 122 122 121 126 93 80 44 26