* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/03/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 104 107 108 106 108 107 106 113 113 111 119 121 124 126 124 V (KT) LAND 100 102 104 107 108 106 108 107 106 113 113 111 119 121 124 126 124 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 105 107 108 110 112 110 109 106 105 106 109 110 112 115 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 4 11 12 14 14 13 15 15 15 11 11 8 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 9 6 7 2 0 0 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 3 4 6 SHEAR DIR 358 21 29 4 4 4 334 318 306 277 263 258 260 252 293 250 259 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 143 144 155 156 158 156 158 160 162 164 164 165 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 135 137 138 150 151 155 153 153 153 155 149 144 147 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 7 700-500 MB RH 51 54 53 54 56 59 62 63 65 66 66 64 65 66 66 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 30 31 31 34 34 33 37 38 36 42 44 49 55 57 850 MB ENV VOR 72 71 72 76 77 74 75 65 63 60 55 55 61 83 103 138 146 200 MB DIV 20 28 22 25 49 50 85 53 65 50 41 35 61 57 72 79 106 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -8 -1 10 8 9 6 8 6 9 26 40 LAND (KM) 1499 1415 1336 1253 1139 945 806 684 401 168 234 231 346 379 317 405 326 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.5 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.8 17.4 18.3 19.4 20.6 21.8 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.0 50.1 51.2 52.3 54.5 56.8 59.3 61.9 64.6 67.3 70.0 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 15 9 6 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 26 40 49 42 47 52 57 64 74 74 61 54 49 76 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 8. 8. 6. 12. 12. 9. 16. 17. 22. 27. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 6. 8. 7. 6. 13. 13. 11. 19. 21. 24. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.8 47.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.77 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.91 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 651.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.18 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.8% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 2.6% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 7.4% 2.8% 13.7% 0.8% 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% Consensus: 7.9% 8.4% 10.5% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/03/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 26( 42) 28( 58) 27( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 4( 5) 27( 31) 46( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 104 107 108 106 108 107 106 113 113 111 119 121 124 126 124 18HR AGO 100 99 101 104 105 103 105 104 103 110 110 108 116 118 121 123 121 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 100 98 100 99 98 105 105 103 111 113 116 118 116 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 89 91 90 89 96 96 94 102 104 107 109 107 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 81 80 79 86 86 84 92 94 97 99 97 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 83 85 84 83 90 90 88 96 98 101 103 101 IN 12HR 100 102 104 95 89 85 87 86 85 92 92 90 98 100 103 105 103