* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/02/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 27 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 27 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 31 29 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 13 14 30 31 35 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 2 0 -1 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 253 243 238 212 179 158 158 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 21.1 21.3 22.0 21.9 20.4 19.1 18.3 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 73 75 82 81 65 61 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.6 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 59 57 51 51 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 15 13 13 12 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 -23 -12 -2 0 11 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 12 4 14 20 5 16 15 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -4 -2 8 -3 13 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 40 47 70 131 191 275 306 412 536 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.2 29.8 30.4 31.0 32.0 32.7 33.4 34.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.6 116.5 117.5 118.5 120.6 122.7 124.8 126.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -14. -19. -24. -29. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -20. -26. -28. -30. -32. -36. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -17. -24. -32. -42. -50. -57. -63. -68. -75. -80. -86. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.5 114.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##