* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142017 08/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 42 46 54 56 57 52 49 41 39 36 30 28 28 30 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 42 46 54 56 57 49 46 38 36 33 27 25 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 38 41 42 43 40 37 32 28 23 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 11 4 10 7 3 3 1 5 7 7 13 23 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 2 3 3 8 5 8 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 92 103 170 79 124 166 77 320 331 336 294 262 263 261 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.2 26.1 23.7 22.4 22.7 22.0 20.6 22.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 161 158 156 154 145 123 98 85 87 81 66 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -50.0 -50.7 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -49.6 -50.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 7 5 7 4 5 2 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 76 72 67 57 55 51 50 46 42 42 40 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 19 18 19 20 17 16 12 10 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 56 75 71 54 102 73 82 37 26 10 16 17 -1 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 112 150 119 98 113 19 24 5 0 -18 -21 -10 -16 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 0 -3 1 4 6 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 332 336 314 248 183 67 26 10 20 67 52 108 217 384 569 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.3 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.1 26.9 27.4 28.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.6 110.0 110.5 111.3 112.3 113.5 114.7 116.0 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 9 8 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 26 22 16 13 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 25. 25. 24. 22. 19. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -5. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 24. 26. 27. 22. 19. 11. 9. 6. 0. -2. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.0 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.96 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.40 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.85 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 -6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 30.0% 24.2% 19.7% 0.0% 22.6% 36.7% 49.3% Logistic: 0.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 3.1% 6.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.2% 12.4% 9.4% 7.0% 0.1% 8.6% 14.5% 16.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##