* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142017 08/30/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 35 41 49 56 56 57 54 54 51 46 40 40 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 35 41 49 56 56 57 54 54 51 46 40 40 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 35 35 34 33 31 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 12 9 8 11 3 4 5 5 12 13 20 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 0 -2 3 2 4 2 3 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 61 71 96 99 82 110 112 107 240 311 322 277 262 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.1 28.6 27.6 25.8 24.5 23.1 23.1 22.3 21.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 166 165 164 154 149 139 119 106 92 93 84 78 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -50.3 -50.8 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 5 6 5 6 4 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 80 78 73 65 52 52 48 45 42 39 42 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 19 19 20 17 17 16 17 17 17 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 54 60 79 53 103 76 83 52 50 36 42 44 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 128 121 110 106 142 105 93 0 -11 23 18 5 -10 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -4 0 -4 0 -1 0 2 0 0 3 6 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 355 360 364 375 348 235 151 148 118 143 219 260 363 298 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.8 21.9 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.1 26.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.6 109.1 109.5 110.3 111.0 111.8 112.7 113.7 115.1 116.8 118.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 37 33 26 24 13 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 28. 29. 29. 27. 24. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 5. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 16. 24. 31. 31. 32. 29. 29. 26. 21. 15. 15. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 107.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 30.0 to 135.0 1.00 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.35 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.87 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.89 -6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.42 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.3% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 32.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 6.3% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 8.4% 11.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.3% 10.7% 8.9% 0.5% 0.1% 9.7% 14.7% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##