* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 49 50 56 57 55 49 42 48 54 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 45 46 39 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 40 35 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 28 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 28 19 15 13 19 21 26 22 26 24 39 40 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 1 -2 -5 -4 -4 1 6 -11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 221 227 229 216 238 228 239 238 244 231 251 243 260 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.9 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 28.6 27.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 136 138 139 149 161 163 163 168 168 146 135 144 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 117 114 115 117 123 134 135 134 137 137 119 109 125 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -51.3 -52.7 -53.5 -54.5 -55.2 -55.5 -54.7 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 5 5 8 6 9 4 3 0 2 0 4 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 38 39 40 43 44 47 50 54 56 41 33 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 25 24 22 20 23 20 19 14 9 15 21 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 20 15 37 11 16 -1 4 -13 8 53 46 -92 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 31 30 12 17 28 18 36 42 35 38 33 0 -28 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 4 0 0 4 3 4 22 4 7 15 -23 -22 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 36 14 -19 -71 -123 -246 -336 -447 -544 -659 -668 -575 -424 -184 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.9 32.0 33.2 34.4 35.6 36.6 37.6 38.6 39.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.1 93.8 93.5 93.2 92.5 91.5 90.2 88.7 86.9 84.8 82.3 79.9 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 9 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 34 12 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -22. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -5. -9. -12. -20. -27. -20. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 11. 12. 10. 4. -3. 3. 9. 7. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.1 94.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 33.3 to 3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 39 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 37 33 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 33 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 31 30 29 29 29 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 28 27 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT