* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 43 46 50 56 50 39 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 45 49 55 49 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 39 40 41 40 34 26 23 22 23 24 27 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 34 N/A 42 52 54 59 37 35 34 32 30 29 37 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 N/A 3 2 11 1 -3 3 1 -1 -3 0 -3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 265 N/A 257 260 260 251 252 236 228 249 272 292 303 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.4 24.7 24.3 24.9 19.2 13.4 18.0 14.8 13.8 14.3 12.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 139 134 132 107 104 108 81 72 79 74 73 72 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 122 119 117 95 92 95 75 69 74 71 70 69 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 N/A -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.7 -53.5 -54.2 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 N/A 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 N/A 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 N/A 68 65 62 52 51 48 43 37 36 40 46 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 LOST 22 25 30 40 38 31 26 20 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 N/A 37 30 52 78 86 156 137 102 85 88 48 33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 48 N/A 89 74 98 47 54 96 47 -2 -21 -20 -16 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 32 N/A 26 21 -3 -51 -25 -22 -10 10 13 3 5 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 45 48 28 29 176 347 361 407 333 460 926 1472 1007 380 614 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.3 34.2 35.4 36.5 38.6 40.4 41.9 43.7 45.7 47.8 50.1 52.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.8 78.6 77.4 75.6 73.9 69.3 64.2 59.0 53.3 47.3 40.4 32.8 25.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 16 18 19 21 21 22 23 25 27 27 28 23 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 15 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -6. -17. -26. -32. -39. -44. -49. -58. -65. -67. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 23. 24. 16. 8. -0. -7. -13. -17. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 8. 11. 15. 21. 15. 4. -8. -21. -30. -40. -52. -63. -66. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.3 79.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 42 45 49 55 49 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 40 43 47 53 47 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 42 48 42 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 38 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT