* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 37 40 41 42 43 44 43 44 41 37 33 31 32 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 33 32 35 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 32 32 32 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 30 28 27 31 26 24 18 15 13 21 22 27 25 24 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 219 235 237 230 229 243 236 261 244 281 266 265 263 279 270 309 293 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 154 154 156 163 163 167 169 167 166 166 162 160 162 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 127 127 127 128 134 134 138 140 136 134 139 131 124 131 135 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -53.9 -54.0 -55.6 -54.7 -55.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 8 4 7 5 9 5 9 4 7 0 7 3 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 57 53 51 52 49 50 50 54 53 54 61 61 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 18 22 22 21 19 18 18 18 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 31 39 35 10 12 0 5 -14 -26 -30 -18 -36 -46 -94 -58 200 MB DIV 44 24 4 3 14 16 48 23 54 19 26 -4 43 8 28 6 9 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -6 1 0 1 1 -2 3 2 5 12 15 34 34 LAND (KM) -66 -41 -15 7 28 39 7 -46 -112 -200 -289 -369 -469 -477 -558 -562 -652 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.9 29.6 30.4 31.4 32.3 33.1 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.8 96.6 96.4 96.2 96.0 95.6 95.3 95.1 94.9 94.6 94.2 93.5 92.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 10 6 2 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 42 38 34 34 49 21 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -21. -23. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 6. 2. -2. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.9 96.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 33 32 35 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 32 35 34 37 39 32 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 33 36 38 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 27 29 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT