* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 87 94 98 99 94 89 80 74 70 68 64 64 61 56 51 V (KT) LAND 75 82 87 94 98 86 53 37 30 28 27 29 25 25 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 90 96 100 100 55 37 30 28 27 31 31 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 8 7 13 10 16 17 25 24 29 28 25 28 36 31 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 1 1 -2 0 -2 3 -4 -1 -2 -5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 213 240 252 222 230 277 222 241 216 233 217 239 244 257 254 271 253 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.3 29.9 29.6 29.7 30.1 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.9 30.3 30.1 30.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 167 160 161 167 163 166 167 168 168 168 170 171 173 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 153 145 137 135 137 131 137 139 144 148 153 148 146 155 138 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 11 7 9 7 9 6 8 4 6 3 6 3 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 69 68 73 72 68 64 61 57 53 55 54 51 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 27 29 29 24 23 20 20 21 23 20 21 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 29 20 8 26 31 6 16 -12 18 7 20 -4 5 -8 -8 -8 -4 200 MB DIV 19 24 26 49 47 14 51 46 78 12 64 23 36 12 15 5 16 700-850 TADV 10 11 3 5 19 3 13 2 -7 -1 -2 0 0 4 0 6 -1 LAND (KM) 308 234 170 141 101 -5 -59 -74 -61 -34 -1 1 22 -104 -314 -379 -473 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.9 95.5 96.0 96.4 97.0 97.2 97.3 97.1 96.8 96.2 95.5 94.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 3 3 8 9 14 9 HEAT CONTENT 71 87 72 43 30 37 45 40 46 47 48 52 57 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. -1. -2. -7. -8. -8. -7. -10. -10. -11. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 19. 23. 24. 19. 14. 5. -1. -5. -7. -11. -11. -14. -19. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.9 94.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 13.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.66 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.41 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.83 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.4% 49.5% 39.7% 31.9% 8.6% 21.2% 13.7% 12.5% Logistic: 22.4% 44.5% 37.5% 23.3% 9.0% 18.8% 9.3% 3.3% Bayesian: 20.6% 24.4% 14.5% 22.6% 3.8% 6.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 26.1% 39.5% 30.6% 25.9% 7.1% 15.4% 7.8% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 21( 32) 0( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 4( 13) 14( 25) 0( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 82 87 94 98 86 53 37 30 28 27 29 25 25 26 26 27 18HR AGO 75 74 79 86 90 78 45 29 22 20 19 21 17 17 18 18 19 12HR AGO 75 72 71 78 82 70 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 57 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 82 87 78 72 68 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS