* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 114 108 98 82 68 56 46 40 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 117 114 108 98 82 68 56 46 40 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 115 108 99 89 72 59 50 43 37 30 25 20 17 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 9 10 6 13 19 29 35 27 23 18 18 18 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 3 3 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 3 3 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 232 209 209 226 255 221 206 210 201 196 191 186 186 199 218 215 217 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.5 24.8 23.9 23.4 23.2 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.3 22.3 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 125 118 111 101 96 94 87 85 84 82 83 90 92 93 90 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 48 46 44 41 39 41 41 41 37 33 33 35 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 21 20 19 18 17 17 19 18 18 16 15 13 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 15 27 23 21 -1 -5 -28 -15 -7 -5 -18 -13 -20 -25 -34 200 MB DIV 38 40 37 16 -3 11 23 15 19 23 4 26 8 12 0 -1 3 700-850 TADV 3 7 4 7 12 16 11 7 10 10 8 4 3 1 1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1960 1972 1988 1993 2002 1923 1834 1763 1706 1611 1583 1567 1548 1616 1626 1631 1553 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.7 20.4 22.1 23.9 25.6 27.1 28.3 29.3 30.1 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.3 131.9 132.5 133.0 133.9 134.7 135.4 135.9 136.3 136.7 137.1 137.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -24. -36. -46. -56. -65. -73. -80. -84. -87. -91. -95.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -7. -16. -33. -47. -59. -69. -75. -84. -91. -98.-103.-108.-112.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.6 130.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 926.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 1.1% 2.7% 1.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 9 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##