* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 35 42 47 57 62 68 69 74 74 77 78 81 84 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 35 42 47 57 40 31 35 40 41 38 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 31 33 37 42 34 29 35 38 41 39 31 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 9 3 6 4 12 2 13 14 15 13 9 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 4 3 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 349 345 359 338 342 356 22 227 293 270 287 267 262 193 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.6 30.3 30.6 29.9 29.8 29.9 28.8 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 155 155 150 152 156 163 171 170 166 164 167 148 136 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 150 155 155 150 152 155 159 167 168 152 148 156 136 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 11 9 11 9 12 9 11 8 11 8 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 61 62 63 69 72 75 73 75 75 74 76 74 82 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 9 8 9 8 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 71 67 61 46 32 12 11 13 27 40 61 84 97 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 17 22 44 59 65 61 23 19 34 22 21 6 44 74 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 -4 0 4 0 -2 4 -2 0 -2 6 -3 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 237 372 333 323 159 79 84 -137 -25 67 106 137 -26 -146 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.8 72.8 74.8 76.6 78.5 81.9 84.9 87.4 89.5 91.0 92.3 93.3 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 16 14 12 9 6 6 5 9 8 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 35 73 94 48 32 43 71 11 49 28 27 34 19 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. 42. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -7. -7. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 3. 5. 12. 17. 27. 32. 38. 39. 44. 44. 47. 48. 51. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 70.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.64 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.47 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.95 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.6% 10.8% 7.4% 4.6% 9.7% 13.5% 33.8% Logistic: 3.0% 14.6% 7.3% 3.0% 1.8% 8.5% 23.9% 57.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% 29.1% Consensus: 2.7% 11.6% 6.4% 3.5% 2.1% 6.2% 12.9% 40.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 33 35 42 47 57 40 31 35 40 41 38 31 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 41 46 56 39 30 34 39 40 37 30 27 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 36 41 51 34 25 29 34 35 32 25 22 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 34 44 27 18 22 27 28 25 18 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT