* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 44 50 58 62 66 69 73 75 81 82 86 89 90 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 44 50 58 62 66 43 32 37 43 44 48 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 45 51 58 65 44 32 40 46 51 57 65 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 13 10 9 1 6 9 12 2 10 12 10 9 4 5 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 0 1 9 3 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 2 6 9 342 350 63 360 9 26 27 300 262 279 245 332 1 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.7 30.3 30.5 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 150 153 150 152 157 165 171 170 162 166 163 161 156 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 155 150 153 150 152 156 160 167 168 150 151 146 144 139 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 14 14 12 11 11 9 10 8 10 8 11 7 11 8 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 56 61 63 70 75 75 77 77 77 73 74 76 76 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 64 60 62 74 72 54 36 4 18 15 25 34 48 63 55 N/A 200 MB DIV -5 0 5 12 30 65 72 77 7 23 15 33 29 25 35 46 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 4 1 0 3 9 -4 -4 5 0 2 1 4 -5 12 N/A LAND (KM) 322 238 203 228 361 333 164 67 64 -148 -11 44 130 203 87 40 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.0 68.9 70.8 72.8 74.8 78.5 81.8 85.0 87.6 89.6 91.2 92.5 93.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 19 19 18 17 16 14 12 9 7 7 6 4 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 72 38 33 69 46 31 42 74 14 43 25 30 36 33 30 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 31. 35. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -11. -11. -13. -12. -16. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 46. 47. 51. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.8 67.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.80 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.91 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.7% 11.4% 8.1% 5.0% 10.2% 21.1% 33.8% Logistic: 11.1% 25.5% 17.1% 6.7% 4.2% 16.9% 32.3% 56.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 19.4% 7.7% 0.2% 0.1% 5.3% 31.1% 57.9% Consensus: 6.2% 20.9% 12.0% 5.0% 3.1% 10.8% 28.1% 49.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 40 44 50 58 62 66 43 32 37 43 44 48 51 53 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 41 47 55 59 63 40 29 34 40 41 45 48 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 37 43 51 55 59 36 25 30 36 37 41 44 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 43 47 51 28 17 22 28 29 33 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT