* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 44 48 58 59 65 67 73 76 80 79 86 85 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 44 48 58 59 65 53 35 40 45 44 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 40 43 47 51 55 50 34 40 45 49 55 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 23 21 14 13 4 8 10 12 3 13 14 13 7 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 0 0 0 10 2 -1 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 9 1 359 3 360 335 308 348 6 17 319 305 259 283 222 330 6 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.3 29.4 29.9 31.0 30.0 29.5 29.2 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 154 153 148 148 146 151 158 159 168 171 169 158 152 164 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 158 154 153 148 148 146 151 157 155 160 171 156 141 136 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.4 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 14 13 11 11 9 9 8 12 9 12 9 10 7 12 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 52 55 62 65 71 76 76 74 72 73 71 77 77 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 12 10 12 9 10 8 10 9 10 8 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 66 64 71 70 63 70 63 49 40 23 18 16 35 49 73 84 63 200 MB DIV 31 7 -9 -7 6 23 62 65 66 9 12 25 37 21 39 47 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 3 1 4 4 -2 0 4 -1 0 0 6 -1 8 LAND (KM) 333 366 352 270 237 349 305 232 59 161 -42 -46 111 185 36 79 111 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.2 65.0 66.8 68.6 70.5 74.1 77.7 81.1 84.0 86.5 88.6 90.4 92.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 18 17 17 16 14 12 10 9 8 4 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 38 61 77 46 55 61 40 40 51 51 40 29 30 21 31 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -3. -7. -7. -10. -9. -11. -10. -12. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 13. 23. 24. 30. 32. 38. 41. 45. 44. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 63.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.90 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.8% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 12.2% 27.7% Logistic: 5.6% 14.5% 8.2% 2.0% 1.3% 6.0% 10.9% 34.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.3% 49.0% Consensus: 3.5% 12.6% 6.5% 0.7% 0.5% 5.1% 8.8% 37.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 44 48 58 59 65 53 35 40 45 44 51 49 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 43 47 57 58 64 52 34 39 44 43 50 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 39 43 53 54 60 48 30 35 40 39 46 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 32 36 46 47 53 41 23 28 33 32 39 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT