* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132017 08/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 56 65 71 71 70 68 66 62 58 52 46 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 56 65 71 71 70 68 66 62 58 52 46 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 45 51 55 55 52 48 44 40 36 31 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 6 7 5 6 2 1 3 5 5 7 18 20 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 1 3 2 6 0 3 0 0 -3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 25 26 1 14 14 357 357 298 310 187 219 198 198 208 221 237 238 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.9 26.4 25.9 25.0 24.5 23.9 23.0 22.5 22.8 22.5 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 155 155 155 151 144 127 122 112 106 100 91 86 88 83 81 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 66 63 61 59 57 54 52 48 45 41 36 34 31 29 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 18 19 20 18 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -16 -11 -14 -10 -9 -9 1 -2 7 31 22 16 7 4 -9 -1 200 MB DIV 38 42 54 59 53 25 38 36 -3 -4 3 -5 -3 -8 6 10 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 2 3 4 3 8 5 5 6 6 8 6 7 LAND (KM) 1185 1257 1323 1382 1452 1602 1711 1810 1881 1901 1897 1834 1777 1608 1645 1652 1664 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.6 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.5 119.8 121.1 122.4 124.9 127.2 129.3 130.9 131.9 132.7 133.2 133.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 7 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 18 16 15 15 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 9. 7. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 35. 41. 41. 40. 38. 36. 32. 28. 22. 16. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 117.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 THIRTEEN 08/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.91 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.78 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 22.9% 22.4% 18.3% 0.0% 19.5% 23.0% 36.2% Logistic: 6.3% 25.0% 13.0% 8.3% 3.5% 11.5% 5.9% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 17.7% 12.2% 9.0% 1.2% 10.5% 9.7% 13.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 THIRTEEN 08/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##