* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 75 67 59 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 75 67 59 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 81 70 61 54 43 34 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 35 45 60 66 81 61 59 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 13 13 1 -4 -7 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 236 234 242 244 243 239 224 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 21.3 15.8 16.4 17.3 14.3 12.6 11.6 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 91 77 77 77 69 65 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 86 74 73 72 66 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -54.0 -53.6 -52.5 -51.3 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -0.9 1.8 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 44 47 50 47 48 50 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 26 24 24 23 21 15 13 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 79 85 108 117 139 143 145 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 122 97 114 115 75 51 40 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 59 10 99 120 106 84 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 655 481 491 658 881 1212 1406 1475 1345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.7 42.5 44.2 46.1 48.0 50.9 52.3 52.9 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.0 52.0 47.9 44.4 41.0 36.5 34.0 32.2 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 35 33 31 25 15 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 34 CX,CY: 31/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -27. -38. -48. -56. -61. -66. -69. -73. -75. -76. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -13. -18. -32. -41. -45. -47. -47. -49. -54. -59. -65. -69. -73. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -9. -14. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -18. -26. -42. -58. -73. -78. -87. -96.-107.-114.-120.-124.-128.-134. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 40.7 56.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 576.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 75 67 59 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 77 69 61 45 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 73 65 49 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 67 51 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 50 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT