* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 70 71 72 69 64 58 50 49 44 39 35 32 31 28 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 70 71 72 69 64 58 50 49 44 39 35 32 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 68 70 73 70 57 48 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 10 17 29 34 39 46 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 8 6 5 11 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 360 355 319 265 253 242 230 224 229 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.2 23.7 17.5 17.9 14.5 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 139 130 131 133 132 103 78 77 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 120 113 116 120 122 95 74 71 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.6 -51.0 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -1.7 -1.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 55 50 47 38 43 50 53 53 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 22 20 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -28 -26 -16 -5 5 82 128 195 255 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 30 41 9 21 58 77 104 113 79 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 15 8 7 10 3 0 -38 15 65 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 475 476 505 654 635 650 556 611 926 1131 1375 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.4 34.4 35.5 36.6 38.9 41.7 44.8 47.8 50.6 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.3 71.3 70.4 68.5 66.6 60.7 53.3 45.7 40.4 37.6 34.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 19 23 29 32 28 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 20 8 14 23 12 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -9. -13. -18. -20. -22. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -26. -30. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -1. -7. -15. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 32.3 72.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.19 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.38 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.7% 9.9% 8.2% 5.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.4% 3.8% 3.7% 1.4% 3.7% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.8% 4.6% 4.0% 2.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/15/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 68 70 71 72 69 64 58 50 49 44 39 35 32 31 28 18HR AGO 65 64 66 68 69 70 67 62 56 48 47 42 37 33 30 29 26 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 65 62 57 51 43 42 37 32 28 25 24 21 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 57 54 49 43 35 34 29 24 20 17 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT