* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 67 66 61 54 50 51 53 53 53 55 59 64 66 69 69 V (KT) LAND 60 65 67 58 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 71 70 49 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 19 22 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 0 -1 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 5 352 12 33 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.3 28.6 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 172 157 146 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 164 162 147 136 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 73 72 75 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 19 17 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 22 45 51 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 49 85 29 41 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -14 -13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 195 177 95 -10 -116 -268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.4 94.5 95.6 96.7 97.8 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 46 53 25 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -8. -16. -21. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. 1. -6. -10. -9. -7. -7. -7. -5. -1. 4. 6. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.2 93.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 15.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.32 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 5.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.65 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.66 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.0% 53.5% 40.0% 28.0% 8.1% 24.0% 16.6% 13.9% Logistic: 41.5% 62.5% 56.6% 50.5% 30.4% 39.5% 23.5% 22.6% Bayesian: 30.3% 48.5% 38.4% 15.7% 3.7% 20.2% 2.9% 53.3% Consensus: 35.3% 54.8% 45.0% 31.4% 14.0% 27.9% 14.3% 29.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 7( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 67 58 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 61 52 40 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 60 57 56 47 35 22 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 38 25 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT