* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 42 45 51 51 46 43 46 48 52 57 62 63 64 65 V (KT) LAND 40 34 38 40 43 49 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 34 37 38 40 44 36 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 8 12 9 18 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 0 3 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 4 19 14 3 355 24 56 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 31.0 30.1 29.9 30.1 30.3 28.9 29.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 168 172 172 151 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 172 163 158 162 166 142 145 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 10 8 11 9 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 66 67 70 73 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 18 20 20 15 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 13 12 16 32 53 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 32 45 41 28 56 53 43 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -3 -7 -2 -9 -6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -158 -49 69 172 206 115 -108 -263 -137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.0 90.1 91.2 92.3 93.4 95.5 97.9 100.5 103.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 31 41 30 35 55 16 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 32. 35. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -7. -18. -25. -26. -28. -29. -29. -28. -28. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 5. 11. 11. 6. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 23. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.5 89.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.96 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.8% 10.2% 7.1% 4.6% 9.8% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 22.0% 13.5% 10.7% 6.7% 16.1% 23.7% 26.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 4.2% Consensus: 2.9% 13.1% 8.0% 6.0% 3.8% 8.7% 11.8% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 38 40 43 49 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 43 45 48 54 43 35 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 47 36 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 28 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT