* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 62 67 74 82 84 73 64 59 59 61 64 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 51 41 40 48 50 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 52 42 39 49 56 56 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 6 4 6 5 4 11 16 17 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 1 2 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 269 236 284 331 57 1 353 25 42 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.3 29.5 28.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 164 168 170 171 171 171 160 147 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 158 161 163 164 161 164 149 135 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 10 10 12 8 9 9 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 67 67 69 70 74 76 78 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 17 16 16 18 17 9 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 34 32 19 26 38 47 52 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 59 69 53 31 44 40 45 31 26 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 1 -8 -12 -16 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 171 207 82 -35 -143 61 223 170 -8 -179 -350 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.7 86.8 87.8 88.9 91.1 93.2 95.2 97.3 99.3 101.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 70 81 49 5 43 36 55 27 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. -9. -16. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 29. 37. 39. 28. 19. 14. 14. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 84.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.80 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.17 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.85 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 41.0% 27.5% 17.7% 7.1% 26.6% 28.9% 34.6% Logistic: 13.6% 52.9% 33.2% 24.6% 14.9% 46.2% 65.1% 66.7% Bayesian: 13.5% 38.7% 9.7% 2.8% 0.7% 38.4% 5.8% 61.6% Consensus: 14.2% 44.2% 23.5% 15.0% 7.5% 37.0% 33.3% 54.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 56 51 41 40 48 50 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 50 45 35 34 42 44 29 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 26 25 33 35 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 25 24 32 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT