* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112017 08/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 28 24 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 28 28 29 27 25 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 77 85 94 96 116 123 118 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 147 144 141 139 138 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 59 55 53 46 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -5 -10 -14 -12 -3 -5 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 9 -11 -18 -2 -12 -3 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 515 482 465 459 463 466 487 479 479 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.4 112.1 112.6 113.1 113.7 114.1 114.3 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -16. -22. -26. -28. -29. -29. -30. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -15. -21. -24. -26. -26. -24. -21. -18. -17. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.3 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112017 ELEVEN 08/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112017 ELEVEN 08/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##