* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/31/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 29 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 9 13 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 354 324 306 294 269 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.2 22.6 22.2 21.9 21.5 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 88 84 81 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 47 44 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -20 -29 -42 -17 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 15 7 -11 -4 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1404 1408 1404 1357 1319 1304 1310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.1 27.5 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.1 128.7 129.3 129.9 131.2 132.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -25. -28. -32. -36. -41. -47. -54. -60. -65. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.2 127.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##