* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 07/31/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 41 44 49 51 51 46 41 40 41 42 41 42 42 V (KT) LAND 35 32 34 36 37 40 45 47 47 42 37 36 37 38 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 34 34 35 36 37 39 39 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 18 19 15 15 21 20 27 32 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -3 -4 -1 -4 0 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 275 296 295 264 262 246 252 242 268 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.3 29.1 28.1 30.1 29.7 29.1 28.5 27.3 27.5 27.3 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 153 138 172 165 154 145 129 132 130 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 171 133 120 152 144 134 125 111 113 112 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 40 41 41 42 48 49 52 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 8 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 -1 -7 2 -29 -41 -47 -34 -24 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 17 -7 4 16 23 43 25 8 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 5 5 0 1 2 0 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 -71 26 132 252 327 303 388 634 667 668 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.0 28.3 29.0 29.7 31.3 32.9 34.5 35.8 37.0 38.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.2 81.3 80.4 79.4 78.4 76.4 74.1 71.7 68.7 65.1 61.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 27 21 62 57 37 20 8 15 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -9. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 14. 16. 16. 11. 6. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.6 82.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 07/31/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.55 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.27 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.8% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 9.3% 12.5% 4.6% 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.1% 7.4% 1.5% 0.1% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 07/31/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 07/31/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 34 36 37 40 45 47 47 42 37 36 37 38 37 38 38 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 42 47 49 49 44 39 38 39 40 39 40 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 42 44 44 39 34 33 34 35 34 35 35 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 34 36 36 31 26 25 26 27 26 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT