* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 9 10 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 3 1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 285 277 275 253 216 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 22.6 22.6 22.4 22.1 21.9 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 89 89 86 82 80 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 53 51 51 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 13 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 21 28 29 25 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 4 6 -1 15 27 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -4 -8 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1118 1209 1302 1324 1354 1438 1535 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.5 127.7 128.8 129.8 131.5 133.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -25. -28. -30. -33. -37. -41. -45. -51. -56. -61. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.7 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/30/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##