* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 43 40 34 28 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 43 40 34 28 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 29 24 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 12 11 10 9 5 4 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 5 1 0 -3 0 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 51 65 78 70 41 31 33 304 243 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.9 24.5 23.9 22.8 22.2 22.0 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 128 126 123 109 103 90 84 81 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 64 60 54 53 46 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 16 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 72 77 78 66 41 -4 7 18 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 10 26 22 9 -1 -16 -11 -11 13 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1709 1673 1638 1593 1531 1440 1426 1447 1428 1467 1545 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.1 17.0 17.9 20.1 22.3 24.2 25.6 26.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.0 125.0 125.2 125.4 126.4 127.8 129.3 130.9 132.6 134.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 11 12 13 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -22. -25. -26. -28. -30. -33. -36. -37. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 124.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.18 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.33 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 16.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##