* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 52 53 55 53 49 49 50 50 49 48 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 52 53 55 53 49 49 50 50 49 48 48 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 51 51 52 52 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 20 17 17 16 19 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 0 0 -1 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 57 67 62 63 56 61 63 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 138 138 138 139 135 131 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 59 62 63 66 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 18 20 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 91 88 100 101 89 81 61 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 44 27 37 60 0 19 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 4 2 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1684 1696 1708 1723 1739 1740 1663 1537 1405 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.9 16.1 18.0 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 124.6 124.7 124.9 125.0 125.2 125.3 125.6 125.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 1 4 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 13 13 13 8 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 124.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##