* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 52 54 56 59 57 56 50 47 41 35 30 25 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 52 54 56 59 57 56 50 47 41 35 30 25 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 52 52 54 55 54 52 46 40 34 30 26 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 18 17 17 14 13 17 14 10 3 12 20 3 19 23 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 91 67 58 61 68 69 67 80 73 50 182 187 214 168 228 238 253 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.1 25.6 24.4 23.1 22.3 22.3 22.1 22.5 23.4 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 136 137 138 135 134 120 108 95 86 79 81 89 95 98 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 61 62 66 66 66 62 55 47 40 37 42 35 32 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 18 18 17 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 83 89 92 88 100 89 89 77 76 79 89 71 55 61 52 40 200 MB DIV 20 21 37 49 48 54 13 34 5 -5 4 -4 -8 9 3 -8 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 1 -3 -2 -3 0 -6 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 1645 1676 1708 1716 1723 1693 1619 1525 1435 1447 1560 1630 1731 1606 1908 1783 1654 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.8 15.0 15.9 17.4 19.3 21.3 23.0 24.3 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.1 124.5 124.8 124.9 124.9 124.7 124.6 124.7 125.6 127.4 129.6 132.3 135.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 0 3 6 9 11 13 14 14 0 5 15 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 12 12 13 11 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. -0. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 7. 6. -0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -30. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 124.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.11 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.76 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 21.2% 15.8% 11.4% 9.4% 14.7% 12.1% 9.7% Logistic: 0.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.9% 5.5% 3.9% 3.3% 5.0% 4.1% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##