* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 48 48 51 53 55 60 58 56 49 48 43 43 44 46 V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 48 48 51 53 55 60 58 56 49 48 43 43 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 47 48 48 50 51 51 51 47 41 37 32 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 15 17 22 20 16 14 16 14 11 4 8 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -5 -5 -2 1 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 112 86 74 61 54 63 59 64 54 30 22 61 291 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.9 25.5 24.7 24.1 22.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 140 139 138 137 136 133 132 118 110 105 87 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.9 -51.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 61 61 61 66 67 69 67 62 57 51 39 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 19 19 20 21 20 22 21 20 17 18 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 88 113 106 107 104 110 93 89 74 56 37 51 59 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 30 35 34 32 18 24 4 43 11 -3 -32 -7 -10 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1546 1599 1653 1695 1738 1786 1771 1702 1638 1588 1542 1533 1549 1563 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.7 15.2 16.1 17.3 18.7 20.2 21.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.8 123.4 123.9 124.4 124.8 125.4 125.4 125.0 125.0 125.5 126.4 127.6 128.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 4 5 7 9 9 15 20 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 12 13 14 13 10 7 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 4. 3. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 5. 10. 8. 6. -1. -2. -7. -7. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 122.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.11 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.35 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 18.0% 13.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.4% 4.6% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##