* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 43 41 41 44 46 50 52 54 50 44 39 32 26 21 18 V (KT) LAND 55 48 43 41 41 44 46 50 52 54 50 44 39 32 26 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 47 42 38 36 35 36 38 40 41 39 36 32 27 22 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 11 16 21 19 22 17 19 17 12 12 10 8 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 -4 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 3 4 3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 148 136 132 113 81 58 48 73 75 81 93 93 80 75 36 33 111 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.3 24.4 23.1 22.4 21.5 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 136 137 137 137 136 136 135 134 126 115 106 94 86 75 70 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 -50.6 -51.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 56 58 62 63 67 69 68 66 58 49 42 33 28 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 22 21 23 22 20 19 17 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 22 43 72 97 118 121 111 114 105 104 88 74 63 87 99 113 93 200 MB DIV 10 29 12 2 -2 40 29 21 47 40 20 20 -11 3 -32 -32 5 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 0 0 1 2 2 8 4 0 0 1 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1424 1480 1537 1591 1645 1699 1707 1684 1625 1522 1438 1397 1364 1317 1349 1311 1310 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.7 17.2 18.6 19.8 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.4 123.0 123.5 124.0 124.5 124.6 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.9 125.6 126.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 3 6 7 7 8 9 11 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 8 9 10 12 12 11 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -14. -14. -11. -9. -5. -3. -1. -5. -11. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.6 121.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##