* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 62 59 57 56 57 58 57 58 55 52 43 35 31 25 21 V (KT) LAND 70 65 62 59 57 56 57 58 57 58 55 52 43 35 31 25 21 V (KT) LGEM 70 67 63 60 57 54 54 56 56 55 52 46 38 31 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 15 14 19 16 16 17 18 17 14 10 14 5 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 -2 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 6 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 167 155 134 124 106 76 54 62 85 85 102 103 104 62 7 356 3 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.4 24.6 23.2 24.7 22.8 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 136 136 135 135 136 135 134 128 109 91 108 92 83 82 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -51.6 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 3 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 56 59 57 58 58 59 66 65 69 68 65 57 45 40 30 24 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 19 20 19 19 20 21 20 22 21 23 20 17 16 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 3 26 40 73 100 120 121 119 117 111 120 121 139 50 98 59 58 200 MB DIV -1 13 28 16 -3 30 38 27 35 39 32 31 -15 -29 -15 -35 -23 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 1 0 0 2 5 3 9 4 1 1 -3 0 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1364 1424 1484 1533 1583 1637 1629 1583 1507 1416 1347 1287 1277 1429 1422 1462 1549 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.9 15.3 16.2 17.5 19.1 21.0 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.8 122.4 122.9 123.3 123.8 123.8 123.6 123.5 123.5 124.2 125.3 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 1 1 4 6 7 10 11 4 6 15 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 8 9 10 10 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 0. -4. -4. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -13. -12. -15. -18. -27. -35. -39. -45. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.8 121.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.32 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.13 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.34 -1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 16.9% 12.8% 9.2% 8.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.9% 4.4% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##